The tight standard deviation bands on the SPX daily chart remain in play on the verge of creating a huge move one way or the other. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. Watch XLF 20.12 and SOX 473.15. Both are bullish creating market lift. The market bears got nothing unless they push XLF and/or SOX lower. Keybot the Quant is bullish but a whipsaw would occur today if semi's or financials turn bearish, and, the SPX drops under 1683. If the SPX stays above 1683 today, the bulls will cruise. The bulls need to touch the 1697 handle and the 1699-1700 resistance test will occur quickly with price moving up through on its way to 1707 and 1710.
M earnings miss so that should hurt retail (RTH and XRT). Global bellwether DE beat on earnings so that is a feather in the bull's cap and reinforces the up move in commodities lately. CSCO earnings are after the bell and will greatly affect the tech sector, semi's (SOX) and the Nasdaq for tomorrow. CEO Chambers always provides excellent commentary and insight into economic conditions so perhaps that will be on tap this afternoon. Fed's Bullard takes the microphone at 3:15 PM to pump the markets higher. Bullard used to be a hawk, then he turned into a dove a year or two ago professing the greatness of QE. Maybe he wanted the Fed head job but since Summers looks like a shoe-in instead of 'Mr.' Yellen, as the president says, Bullard may see it is not his time and perhaps he returns to his hawk roots? What a shame it is that market direction is dictated by the Fed, BOJ and central banker actions. Watch XLF 20.12, SOX 473.15 and SPX 1697 to determine market direction.
Note Added 9:38 AM: SOX failure at the get-go. Watch SOX 473.07 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Equities will sell off and remain weak if SOX stays under 473.07. SOX is now at 472.98 with the bulls trying to recover.
Note Added 10:07 AM: SOX is 472.19 hanging tough for bears under the 473.07 danger line. SPX 1691.66. Volatility is up. TRIN is 0.74, very bullish, printing at the lows thus far today, so the bulls hold an ace card up their sleeve they can play at anytime, perhaps in concert with the typical morning Fed pump at 10-11 AM.
Note Added 11:21 AM: TRIN 0.63 so the bulls hold a trump card that can be played. SOX is 472.78 moving up to test the 473.07 line in the sand.
Note Added 11:34 AM: SOX 473.10; see if the bulls can keep it above 473.07, if so, equities will float upwards from here.
Note Added 11:50 AM: SOX 474.12 so the bulls will set their sights on SPX 1697 now.
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